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The past few years Eve has had an equilibrium between people leaving and people new and/or returning to the game. Hence the â€˜plateauâ€™ mentioned above. Probably somewhere in the future this plateau will start to slope down. When this is going to happen is anyoneâ€™s guess.
People might leave for the next Â Big SF Game. The only thing that could be considered an Eve killer on the horizon at the moment is Star Citizen, weâ€™ll have to see about that. Maybe some other MMO or SF game will come along and steal itâ€™s players ! But people can play multiple games, so I seriously doubt it.
Probably the only thing that can kill Eve is Eve itself. The game has been getting a bit stale lately. The last few expansions didnâ€™t really add much to the game, it did make it better with bugfixes and all though. There has to come a point where more people leave (or cancel their second and third account, big thing in Eve) then there are coming in. I donâ€™t know how long CCP can get away with these minimalist â€˜expansionsâ€™ Â before the players are really starting to get bored.
And once that happens there will be a tipping point where Eve gets a serious overhaul and Bob from Marketing decides a new, bigger playersbase that wants to spent cash in a cash shop is worth more than the current playersbase. And thatâ€™s where free to play etc.comes in.
Letâ€™s hope itâ€™ll take a while before we get there ;).
Other participants at Kirith’s Inner Sanctum.